[1]李永和,靳全锋.浙江省林火时空变化及影响因子分析[J].浙江林业科技,2021,41(04):62-69.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-3776.2021.04.010]
　LI Yong-he,JIN Quan-feng.Temporal and Spatial Variation of Forest Fires and Factors Analysis in Zhejiang Province[J].Journal of Zhejiang Forestry Science and Technology,2021,41(04):62-69.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-3776.2021.04.010]
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浙江省林火时空变化及影响因子分析()
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《浙江林业科技》[ISSN:1001-3776/CN:33-1112/S]

卷:
41
期数:
2021年04期
页码:
62-69
栏目:
出版日期:
2021-08-01

文章信息/Info

Title:
Temporal and Spatial Variation of Forest Fires and Factors Analysis in Zhejiang Province
文章编号:
1001-3776（2021）04-0062-08
作者:
李永和 1; 靳全锋2
（1. 浙江省缙云县林业局，浙江丽水 323000；2. 丽水职业技术学院，浙江丽水 323000）
Author(s):
LI Yong-he1; JIN Quan-feng2
（1. Jinyun Forestry Bureau of Zhejiang, Lishui 323000, China; 2. Lishui Vocational and Technical College, Lishui 323000, China）
关键词:
浙江; 林火; 时空变化; 影响因子
Keywords:
Zhejiang province;  forest fire;  temporal and spatial variation;  influence factor
分类号:
S762.1
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1001-3776.2021.04.010
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
以2001—2018 年的浙江省MODIS-MCD64A1 森林火灾数据为研究基础，运用逻辑斯蒂和随机森林方法结 合气象、植被、地形、经济、人口和基础设施等因子对浙江省的林火时空变化及影响因子进行研究。结果表明： （1）2001—2018 年，浙江省共发生森林火灾1 866 次，年均发生林火104 次，林火时空分布不均匀，空间上集中 在温州中部和东部及与丽水市交汇区域、丽水市中部和北部区域、衢州中部、台州和宁波东部区域及金华、杭州 和湖州的小面积区域；（2）时间上，森林火灾的发生次数在年际间的波动较大，总体呈先增加后降低的趋势，月 火点分布不均衡，林火在10、11、12 月和次年的1、2、3 和4 月的火点占全年总火点的95.28%以上；（3）基于 随机森林算法筛选出9 个林火发生重要因子，按重要性由大到小排序依次为年均温度、高程、年降水量、河流密 度、月植被覆盖度、坡度、前一年植被覆盖度、人均国内生产总值、公路密度；运用逻辑斯蒂模型方法计算出林 火发生与日平均气压、月植被覆盖度、坡向指数、坡度、日最大地表气温、公路密度、人均国内生产总值、居民 点密度、河流密度之间呈显著正相关关系，与年降水量和高程之间呈显著负相关关系。
Abstract:
Based on MODIS image data of forest fires during 2001-2018 in Zhejiang province, temporal and spatial variation was studied by logistic and random forest model, combined with meteorology, vegetation, terrain, economy, population and infrastructure. The results showed that there were 1866 forest fires in the province, with an average annual of 104 times. The spatial distribution of forest fires was concentrated in the southern Zhejiang, such as central and eastern parts of Wenzhou and the intersection with Lishui city and the middle of Lishui. Forest fires mainly occurred in October, November, December, January, February, March and April, accounting more than 95.28% of the total. The most important factors for forest fire occurrence by random forest were ordered by annual average temperature, elevation, annual average precipitation, river density, monthly vegetation coverage, slope, vegetation coverage of previous year, GDP and road density. There were positive relation of forest fires with daily average air pressure, monthly vegetation coverage, aspect index, slope, daily maximum surface temperature, road density, GDP, residential density, and river density, while significant negative correlation with annual precipitation and elevation.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期：2021-03-17；修回日期：2021-06-03
基金项目：浙江大花园建设项目（No.DHYB1008）；浙江省教育厅一般项目（No.Y201840513）
作者简介：李永和，工程师，从事林火模型研究；E-mail:476332956@qq.com。
更新日期/Last Update: 2021-08-01